#1. 7/15 - What's Going On?

• TOP STORIES THIS WEEK

• TOP STOCK PICKS

• A.I. INTRO

Tops stories from the week of 7/14/2025:

1. 📈 Strategists Wary After Sharp Rebound

• Wall Street analysts acknowledge the S&P 500 has surged ~30% in just three months, yet flag concerns of a choppy ride ahead. Ongoing tariff threats from the U.S., weakening economic indicators, and inflation pressures underlie the caution, even as banks (Goldman, UBS, RBC) raise year-end targets. Outlook: Bullish on Fed rate cuts later in the year but wary of near-term volatility and a possible speculative bubble fueled by AI momentum  .

2. 📉 Big Tech’s Market Dominance—a Double‑Edged Sword

• Big Tech accounts for nearly half of the S&P 500’s earnings growth this year. The magnified role of the “Magnificent Seven” (e.g., Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft) supports the current rally—but it also exposes markets to sector-specific risk. Valuations are stretched (e.g. tech ETF trading at 73× earnings), evoking dot-com parallels. The core question remains: are strong fundamentals or speculative excess driving these highs? 

3. 🌏 Tariff Drama Continues—But Markets Hold Firm

• New 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico announced by the U.S. have not sparked a severe sell-off. Historically, markets rebound quickly—typically within ~105 days of a 5% pullback. Morgan Stanley suggests much tariff-strain may be priced in, particularly due to USMCA exemptions. Meanwhile, renewed tariff talks and positive earnings revisions (+3% from April lows) are giving investors confidence  .

4. 🚀 Nvidia Hits $4 Trillion Market Cap

• Nvidia has become the first-ever $4 trillion company, thanks to its leadership in the AI semiconductor space—its stock is up approximately 287% over two years and 18% YTD. Earnings forecasts top $100 billion for 2025, with valuation multiples (~34×) still considered in-line. But some warn this kind of meteoric rise could presage a sharp correction, akin to Cisco in 2000  .

5. 🛫 Boeing (and Aerospace) Gets a Lift

• Boeing shares jumped after an Air India 787 crash investigation cleared the aircraft’s design and engines of fault—it pointed to a cockpit switch mishandling. Analysts (Bernstein, Citi, Susquehanna) raised price targets into the mid-$200s. This lift also extended to TransDigm and GE Aerospace, highlighting investor optimism for improved sector performance and upcoming Q2 earnings  .

🧭 What This Means for Investors

1. Stay diversified. Avoid overexposure to tech and mega-caps.

2. Watch valuations. Elevated forward P/E levels warrant careful scrutiny.

3. Track macro factors. Tariffs, Fed policy, and geopolitical developments could sway markets quickly.

4. Spot opportunities in rotation. Sectors like aerospace, finance, and consumer discretionary may offer undervalued plays.

5. Prepare for volatility. Amid optimistic forecasts, strategists warn of sharp swings ahead.

Top stocks to invest in today:

1. SHORT TERM (Higher Risk) YIELDMAX MSTR OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF (MSTY):

🌟 What Is MSTY?

o Structure: Covered‑call ETF tied to MicroStrategy (MSTR), designed to generate high monthly income by selling call options—exposure to price upside, but capped gains with recurring income YouTube+10YieldMax ETFs+10etf.com+10.

o Yield: Around 123% TTM dividend yield, though most is classified as return-of-capital, not traditional income .

o Scale: Nearly $5.6 billion AUM, showing massive investor interest in high-yield strategies .

📈 Performance & Market Behavior

o 1‑Year return: +143%, tied to MSTR’s riding Bitcoin volatility YouTube+10YieldMax ETFs+10Seeking Alpha+10.

o Since inception (Feb ‘24): ~197% annualized—strong growth via income + price moves etf.com+2YieldMax ETFs+2StockAnalysis+2.

o Covered-call tradeoff: Cousin MSTR is up ~306%, surpassing MSTY’s capped upside—but MSTY delivered consistent cash regardless YieldMax ETFs+6etf.com+6Reddit+6.

✅ Why It Can Still Make Sense

⚠ Risks to Watch

o Return-of-capital mix: High yields may shrink NAV over time—income might not be sustainable long-term Seeking Alpha+1YieldMax ETFs+1.

o Capped upside: If MSTR surges dramatically, MSTY won’t fully capture gains YouTube+10etf.com+10Reddit+10.

o Single-asset & derivatives risk: Exposed to MSTR-specific volatility, counterparty risk, and leverage sensitivity .

🔭 Optimistic 3–5 Year Scenario

Assuming:

o Volatility remains elevated in BTC/MSTR

o Call premiums stay rich

o Tactical reinvestment of distributions

MSTY could deliver:

o Annualized total returns of 30–40%, combining income and modest price gains

o Especially if MSTR experiences choppy markets rather than runaway bull runs

Strategy idea:

o Use monthly cash flow to reinvest in MSTY or similar strategies during low-price dips—compounding effect becomes powerful Schwab Brokerage+3etf.com+3Yahoo Finance+3Yahoo FinanceYieldMax ETFs+9Reddit+9StockAnalysis+9etf.com+4Seeking Alpha+4Barron's+4.

🎯 Summary

MSTY is not a traditional buy‑and‑hold—but for investors aiming to capitalize on volatility with high income and disciplined reinvestment, it offers strong upside potential.

o 🌪 In sideways or mildly bullish MSTR markets? MSTY shines through return-of-capital dynamics.

o 🚀 In explosive rallies? It misses out, but the income cushions returns.

o 📉 In downturns? Still produces yield—but NAV erosion remains a risk.

Top stocks to Invest in Everyday:

1. SCHWAB US DIVIDEND EQUITY ETF (SCHD):

🌟 Key Highlights

o Trading around $26.87, a bit off from its 52-week high of $29.72, with a yield of ~3.8% The Motley Fool+15Schwab Brokerage+15AInvest+15.

o 5‑Year Annualized Return: ~12.9%, beating many large-value peers Trading News+4Yahoo Finance+4Reddit+4.

o Expense Ratio: ultra-low at just 0.06%—great for cost-conscious investors .

o Portfolio Composition: ~100 high-quality dividend-growing U.S. firms; top sectors include energy (now ~21%), consumer staples, industrials, and tech Barron's+8Schwab Brokerage+8Trading News+8.

📈 Why SCHD Could Shine in the Next 5 Years

5. High Dividend + Compounding Yield
With a steady ~3.8% yield and historically strong dividend growth (~11% CAGR), income alone forms a reliable return base Yahoo Finance+4Trading News+4StockInvest+4Seeking Alpha.

6. Value Tilt Ahead of Rotation
SCHD trades at ~13.7× forward P/E vs. the S&P ~22×. If markets shift back to value amid lower rates and slower growth, SCHD stands to gain from a multiple expansion Reddit+15Trading News+15Yahoo Finance+15.

7. Energy Rebalancing = Higher Yield & Volatility
The new ~21% energy weight both boosts yield (~3.8%) and offers a lever for outperformance if oil/energy rebounds Seeking Alpha+6Barron's+6YouTube+6.

8. Diversified, Quality Holdings
Includes resilient firms like Texas Instruments, PepsiCo, and AbbVie—companies with strong cash flow and stable dividends Barron's+10StockAnalysis+10Schwab Brokerage+10Trading News.

9. Forecasted Return Potential
Some analysts on Seeking Alpha expect 20%+ annualized returns over the next few years Schwab BrokerageSeeking Alpha.

📊 Five-Year Optimistic Scenario

Assuming SCHD returns:

o ~4% dividend yield (reinvested),

o ~8% capital appreciation (from growth and multiple expansion),

o With compounding, that totals ~12–14% annualized returns.

A $10,000 investment today could grow to $17,600–$19,000 in 5 years—using a conservative 12% CAGR.

⚠ Key Risks to Monitor

o Energy Exposure: Heavy tilt (~21%) into volatile sector; could drag returns if oil falls Reddit+7StockAnalysis+7tradingview.com+7.

o Rate Environment: SCHD competes with bonds; if rates stay elevated, rotation out of dividend stocks may persist Trading News+1Barron's+1.

o Market Regimes: Underperformance during growth rallies—SCHD may lag if growth stocks dominate.

✅ Bottom Line

SCHD combines reliable income, under-the-radar valuation, and quality diversification. It’s a smart core holding for investors seeking steady returns with moderate upside—especially if you’re planning to invest regularly. DCA-ing on SCHD could payoff nicely in a range of macro scenarios, from mild recovery to full value rotation.

2. ALIBABA (BABA):

🌱 Why BABA Excites — Even After Recent Runs

1. Trading Below Fair Value

o Fair value estimates range from the low $100s to the mid-$150s:

§ Yahoo Finance’s 2-stage DCF model centers around $114 TipRanks+3Reddit+3Simply Wall St+3MarketBeatWikipedia+13Yahoo Finance+13Long Forecast+13

§ MarketBeat’s 16‑analyst consensus is $150.80 (~+29% upside) MarketBeat+1Capital.com+1

§ TradingView aggregates put fair value at $164.57 Capital.com

o Morningstar pegs BABA at a 28% discount to its $150 fair value MarketChameleon.com+15Morningstar+15Capital.com+15

2. AI-Led Rebound & Investment

o Alibaba is ramping up $50B+ into AI & cloud over the next 3 years, positioning for AGI-scale transformation The Times+1Business Insider+1

o Q4 FY25 saw 8% revenue growth and 13% cloud growth, while AI-driven international commerce surged 32% AP News+1MarketWatch+1

3. Turning Regulation Into Opportunity

o Recent US–China tariff easing and Jack Ma’s return to prominence sparked a 60%+ YTD stock surge MarketWatch+6Barron's+6The Times+6

o BABA upgraded by top investors like Tepper & Burry following strong earnings, buybacks, and “AI-driven strategy” MarketWatch

📈 5-Year Bull Case Scenario

Core assumptions:

o AI & cloud growth at ~15–20% annually

o E‑commerce rebounds at ~5–7% annually

o Valuation multiple re-rates to ~15–18× forward EPS

Year‑End Price Targets:

By 2028–2029, implied target range:

o Fair value midpoint: ~$150–165

o Upside potential: +30–40% if fundamentals hold

✅ Upside Triggers to Watch

⚠️ Red Flags & Risks

o Geopolitical volatility – U.S./China tensions could re-spike and pressure Chinese stocks

o Execution missteps in pivot to AI or cloud

o Adverse regulation, especially tighter oversight from Beijing

🎯 My Verdict

BABA offers a compelling mix: undervalued, AI/cloud-infused growth, improving macro backdrop, and strong capital return plans.
For long-term investors, initiating or scaling in now with a 2–5 year horizon could be a smart move — especially if China re-accelerates and AI tailwinds persist.

Want help building a tracking sheet for AI milestones, earnings beats, or geopolitical alerts to time your entries and exits?

Top A.I. tricks:

• Instead of using Robinhood, Schwab, etc., for research, try using one of the free A.I. sites. You can teach it what you’re looking for, and it can even send you updates daily—without needing to reenter your criteria. Ask the same questions across multiple free A.I. tools, and don’t be afraid to ask for explanations or source citations. Be sure to phrase your questions using your own analysis or memorized criteria (if you don’t, it may just quote other sources). Use it to access investor advice you might not otherwise find—especially buy/hold/sell ratings. Always verify before making big or risky purchases (A.I. is just a tool, but it’s significantly more efficient than doing the research on your own). And best of all… it’s FREE!!!!!

· Instead of asking “What stock should I buy?”, ask “Which stock has the most potential to double in value over the next 12 months while presenting the least amount of risk?”

· • Instead of asking “Which stock pays the highest dividend?”, ask “Which stock offers the most growth from dividend payouts with the least amount of initial and recurring investment from me?”

· • Instead of asking “What stock should I buy?”, ask “Which stock is recommended by the most trusted sources, and can you provide supporting details for each recommendation?”

· • If this is something you’ve already been thinking about, I promise you’ll find using A.I. for this incredibly fun—and you’ll learn so much. Best of all… it’s FREE!!!!!!

My Introduction:

Hi, my name is J. I’m not anything special—and that’s the main takeaway I hope everyone gets. I work in finance, spending my days analyzing metrics in the manufacturing field. Over the past six years, I’ve been investing. I’ve made my fair share of mistakes, but over the past year, it finally clicked: the analysis I do at work closely mirrors what drives success in the stock market.

Nothing is certain, but one thing is—stocks go up and down. And if you can follow the right metrics and identify value, they tend to go up over time.

The trick I’ve learned—and one I think anyone can replicate—is using tools like ChatGPT, Google Gemini, or any free A.I. platform to alert you when stocks reach a good value. I used to do all of this manually… then figured out how to do it in seconds.

This entire article was written with the help of A.I., and my goal is to show you how simple, effective, and profitable this strategy can be. I’ll be sending out a new article every week, along with extra breakdowns on my Twitter account: @datadrivenAIinv. Follow along so you don’t miss out! Facebook: Data-Driven A.I. Investor and subscribe to get weekly newsletters all for Free!